Model Predictions
| Model | Loyola (MD) | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +21 (92-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.