Model Predictions
| Model | Ohio | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.2% | 92.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.0% | 79.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 9.6% | 90.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.6% | 98.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.5% | 98.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +14 (73-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.