Model Predictions
| Model | Dartmouth | Brown | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Brown +16 (79-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.