Model Predictions
| Model | Lamar | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 65.8% | 34.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 87.6% | 12.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.7% | 12.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State +1 (74-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.