Model Predictions
| Model | Eastern Illinois | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +14 (83-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.