Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona | Eastern Washington | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.5% | 25.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.6% | 25.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Eastern Washington +9 (74-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.