Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina | Wake Forest | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wake Forest +9 (66-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.