Model Predictions
| Model | South Florida | Memphis | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.7% | 25.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.7% | 25.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Memphis +4 (78-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.