Model Predictions
| Model | Marist | Canisius | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Canisius +7 (68-61). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.