Model Predictions
| Model | Iona | Niagara | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.5% | 24.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Niagara +12 (79-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.