Model Predictions
| Model | Denver | Air Force | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Air Force -12 (72-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.