Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State | Weber State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.8% | 94.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.4% | 87.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.2% | 87.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Weber State +20 (82-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.