Model Predictions
| Model | Quinnipiac | Wagner | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Wagner -5 (75-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.