Model Predictions
| Model | Southeastern Louisiana | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.8% | 83.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State +11 (67-56). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.