Model Predictions
| Model | UCF | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.3% | 87.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.6% | 98.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.6% | 98.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 8.3% | 91.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +8 (75-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.