Model Predictions
| Model | Long Island University | Robert Morris | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Robert Morris +5 (81-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.