Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State | Pacific | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.4% | 73.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.1% | 79.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.6% | 80.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pacific +11 (74-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.