Model Predictions
| Model | Colgate | Niagara | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Niagara +2 (63-61). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.