Model Predictions
| Model | Santa Clara | Nevada | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.4% | 28.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.9% | 24.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.1% | 23.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Nevada -3 (70-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.