Model Predictions
| Model | Middle Tennessee | Morehead State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.9% | 27.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Morehead State -4 (73-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.