Model Predictions
| Model | Kent State | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.0% | 37.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.1% | 18.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.2% | 18.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall +10 (90-80). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.