Model Predictions
| Model | Albany (NY) | Lehigh | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.1% | 30.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.6% | 29.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Lehigh +1 (75-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.