Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee State | Eastern Illinois | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.1% | 86.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.3% | 90.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.2% | 90.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Eastern Illinois +31 (81-50). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.