Model Predictions
| Model | Marquette | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.0% | 95.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.9% | 98.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.8% | 98.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 8.0% | 92.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +19 (67-48). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.