Model Predictions
| Model | Stetson | Campbell | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 78.4% | 21.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Campbell +6 (66-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.