Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana State | Bradley | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.8% | 32.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Bradley +11 (62-51). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.