Model Predictions
| Model | Nicholls State | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State +10 (62-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.