Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee Tech | Morehead State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.0% | 17.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.2% | 16.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Morehead State +12 (88-76). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.