Model Predictions
| Model | Ohio State | Illinois | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois +3 (80-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.