Model Predictions
| Model | Austin Peay | Eastern Illinois | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Eastern Illinois +2 (75-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.