Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Francis (PA) | Robert Morris | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Robert Morris +22 (70-48). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.