Model Predictions
| Model | Liberty | Navy | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.1% | 89.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Navy +26 (79-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.