Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Peter's | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.6% | 85.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.7% | 88.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.2% | 77.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +17 (79-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.