Model Predictions
| Model | Albany (NY) | Harvard | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 30.0% | 70.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Harvard +18 (78-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.