Model Predictions
| Model | Charlotte | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.0% | 89.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.4% | 85.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.1% | 95.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +27 (81-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.