Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee State | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +8 (61-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.