Model Predictions
| Model | Centenary (LA) | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State -3 (56-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.