Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.6% | 80.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Purdue +28 (95-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.