Model Predictions
| Model | UMBC | Navy | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Navy +11 (72-61). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.