Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas | Memphis | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.1% | 18.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.4% | 18.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis +5 (76-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.