Model Predictions
| Model | William & Mary | Duke | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 0.9% | 99.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 3.3% | 96.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.3% | 99.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 0.2% | 99.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 6.0% | 94.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke +41 (96-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.