Model Predictions
| Model | Nevada–Las Vegas | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.1% | 90.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.7% | 78.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.9% | 92.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.7% | 92.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +40 (106-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.