Model Predictions
| Model | Manhattan | Army | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.9% | 27.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 91.8% | 8.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.3% | 4.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.4% | 4.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Army -20 (49-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.