Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.1% | 55.9% | +1.3 | ✗ (19.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -18 (79-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson * | 34 | 16-23 | 2-6 | 7-9 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 40 | - |
| Jackie Young * | 33 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 22 | - |
| Kelsey Plum * | 31 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 3 | - |
| Alysha Clark * | 29 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Chelsea Gray * | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Tiffany Hayes | 24 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Sydney Colson | 14 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Megan Gustafson | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Kiah Stokes | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kierstan Bell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kate Martin | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Cloud * | 37 | 2-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Kahleah Copper * | 30 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Brittney Griner * | 26 | 10-13 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 18 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 26 | 4-9 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Monique Billings * | 14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Sophie Cunningham | 29 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Celeste Taylor | 21 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Mikiah Herbert Harrigan | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter