Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Atlanta Dream | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✓ (12.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Dream +16 (81-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWanna Bonner * | 35 | 9-17 | 1-5 | 3-6 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 25 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 33 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Samantha Prahalis * | 31 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Charde Houston * | 22 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Nakia Sanford * | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Alexis Gray-Lawson | 24 | 3-11 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Avery Warley-Talbert | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 15 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Krystal Thomas | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armintie Herrington * | 29 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Lindsey Harding * | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Sancho Lyttle * | 21 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Yelena Leuchanka * | 20 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Angel McCoughtry * | 18 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Tiffany Hayes | 20 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Cathrine Kraayeveld | 18 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 19 | - |
| Aneika Morello | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 14 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Laurie Koehn | 11 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Courtney Paris | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter