Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Atlanta Dream | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.4% | 68.6% | +4.3 | ✓ (1.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Dream +6 (94-88). Ratings: 2011 season-end ratings.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penny Taylor * | 40 | 12-18 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 25 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 37 | 6-14 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | - |
| Tangela Smith * | 36 | 4-10 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Temeka Johnson * | 35 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 31 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Nicole Ohlde | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Brooke Smith | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Taylor Lilley | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel McCoughtry * | 27 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 10 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques * | 25 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | -3 | - |
| Sancho Lyttle * | 21 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Shalee Lehning * | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Erika de Souza * | 11 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Kelly Miller | 27 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | - |
| Armintie Herrington | 27 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Yelena Leuchanka | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Alison Bales | 21 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
* = starter