Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.6% | 64.4% | +3.3 | ✗ (6.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -3 (93-96). Ratings: 2011 season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel McCoughtry * | 33 | 11-28 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | - |
| Sancho Lyttle * | 33 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 26 | - |
| Erika de Souza * | 29 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques * | 25 | 4-16 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -1 | - |
| Shalee Lehning * | 22 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Kelly Miller | 17 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Armintie Herrington | 17 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
| Alison Bales | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Yelena Leuchanka | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Coco Miller | 3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penny Taylor * | 37 | 4-14 | 0-2 | 10-11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 33 | 8-22 | 2-7 | 12-13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 15 | - |
| Temeka Johnson * | 32 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Tangela Smith * | 29 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Candice Dupree * | 19 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 26 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Nicole Ohlde | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Ketia Swanier | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Sequoia Holmes | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter