Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Fever | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.5% | 60.5% | +2.4 | ✓ (12.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +15 (71-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamika Catchings * | 34 | 4-14 | 1-5 | 6-7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Kelly Miller * | 29 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Natalie Williams * | 27 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Stephanie White * | 25 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Deanna Jackson * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Kristen Rasmussen | 22 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Kelly Schumacher | 20 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Coretta Brown | 12 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Ebony Hoffman | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Kate Starbird | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna DeForge * | 35 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 21 | - |
| Plenette Pierson * | 29 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Slobodanka Tuvic * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 17 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Jae Kingi-Cross | 20 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Gwen Jackson | 15 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Tamara Moore | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Shereka Wright | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Kayte Christensen | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ashley Robinson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter