Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.1% | 84.9% | +9.5 | ✓ (24.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +34 (118-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 36 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 10-26 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 6-19 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 23 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 17 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 17 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant | 12 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 34 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 32 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 6-9 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 28 | 8-13 | 5-10 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 26 | 11-19 | 1-7 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Al Horford * | 22 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 27 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 20 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jaden Springer | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Xavier Tillman | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter