Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.4% | 25.6% | -5.9 | ✓ (8.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 79.3% | 20.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -14 (88-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White * | 40 | 15-26 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 22 | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 38 | 7-18 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 8 | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 38 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 37 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 8-8 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 22 | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 13 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - | |
| Al Horford | 33 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 18 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 43 | 8-17 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 41 | 11-22 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 37 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 13 | - | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. * | 22 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 16 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Delon Wright | 29 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - | |
| Patty Mills | 22 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 18 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - | |
| Kevin Love | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter